This week, the U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly before falling back significantly. At the start of the week, surging oil prices combined with government bond sell-offs in various regions led the market to revisit the “inflation resurgence—Fed rate hike” narrative, with the dollar briefly testing the 100 mark;On Thursday, after Waller signaled a bias toward holding rates steady in September, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, and the DXY quickly fell back to around 99. Following the release of strong nonfarm payroll data on Friday, the dollar index surged rapidly and, as of this writing (around 9:00 p.m. Beijing time), was fluctuating near 99.2.
Gold first retreated and then rebounded this week. Early in the week, against the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar and rising global long-term yields, it fell below $4,300 and faced technical selling pressure below the 200-day moving average; subsequently, as expectations for a Fed rate hike cooled, the gold price recovered to $4,400 and once again approached $4,500.Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, gold faced a sell-off, dropping more than $70 in the short term—a daily decline of over 1.6%—and briefly dipping below the $4,400 per ounce mark during the session.
Crude oil was one of the strongest assets with the clearest trend this week, with WTI briefly breaking through $90 and Brent climbing above $95, both reaching approximately six-week highs. The core driver was the resurgence of large-scale military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which brought the risk of supply disruptions back into pricing.Signs of Russia-Ukraine peace talks briefly weighed on oil prices, but were insufficient to eliminate the Middle East risk premium.
Non-U.S. currencies showed marked divergence this week, with the yen serving as the primary driver. The USD/JPY pair briefly tested 160 early in the week but quickly retreated to around 155 amid a sharp rise in expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike and concerns over dry weather;The euro fluctuated mainly around 1.16, as the energy shock intensified European inflation concerns, though it lacked the momentum for an independent breakout; the British pound briefly fell below 1.35, weighed down by soaring UK government bond yields and fiscal pressures; the Australian dollar, meanwhile, stabilized again near 0.72 after the dollar weakened.
U.S. stocks followed a pattern of “rate shock—bounce from oversold levels—renewed embrace of growth” this week. Early in the week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average came under pressure, with energy stocks bucking the trend while chip stocks and high-valuation growth stocks were under pressure;After yields moderated on Wednesday, capital flowed back into semiconductors, regional banks, and oversold sectors. On Thursday, Waller’s dovish remarks further fueled a collective rebound in the three major indices, with technology, AI, software, and consumer discretionary stocks once again leading the gains.