Last Friday, as market concerns grew that the U.S. Treasury’s plan to expand its repurchase of long-term government bonds could further weaken the dollar, the U.S. Dollar Index hovered near a three-month low, briefly falling to an intraday low of 98.56 before closing down 0.03% at 98.84;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 2.7 basis points at 4.739%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed up 5.1 basis points at 4.240%.
Driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and technical factors, spot gold surged by more than $100 during the session, briefly breaking above $4,630, and ultimately closed up 1.86% at $4,603.25 per ounce;Spot silver briefly returned above $70 and ultimately closed up 1.26% at $68.94 per ounce.
Crude oil continued to fluctuate as Trump threatened to impose economic sanctions on Iran’s trading partners.WTI crude hovered above $86 and ultimately closed up 0.42% at $86.34 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 0.74% at $92.39 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.98%,the S&P 500 rose 0.43%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 5.14%, Oracle (ORCL.N) rose 3.11%, and SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose 2.22%.Intel (INTC.O) fell 2.24%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 0.98%.The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.4%; Baidu (BIDU.O) rose 1.35%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 8.59%.

After a week of volatile trading, major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Friday, buoyed by solid economic data showing that U.S. business activity grew at its fastest pace in more than four years,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising about 1% and the Nasdaq ending its five-day losing streak; however, U.S. stocks still posted weekly losses as investors remained unsettled by volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East.
After global bond markets experienced a round of sharp volatility triggered by inflation concerns and fiscal spending, U.S. authorities intervened to curb long-term borrowing costs. The market is awaiting the new fiscal consolidation plan promised by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent.Strategists believe long-term bond yields will stabilize in the short term, but warn that if the U.S. Treasury market plan falls through, it could weigh on the dollar and prompt a flight from risk assets.
Crude oil futures rose for the sixth consecutive day after U.S. President Trump threatened to impose economic sanctions on Iran’s trading partners, heightening expectations of tight supply and fueling inflation concerns.This week, Brent crude futures rose 6.39%, while U.S. crude futures gained 5.66%.
Driven by multiple factors—including concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, a weaker dollar, and the U.S. Treasury’s unexpected expansion of its long-term Treasury repurchase program—spot gold prices broke strongly above $4,600 per ounce this week, marking their third consecutive week of gains.Gold opened near $4,381 at the start of the week. On Wednesday, after the Treasury announced it would double the scale of its repurchases of 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasuries, the price quickly broke through the $4,500 mark,and subsequently reached a weekly high of $4,632.14 on Friday, driven by dovish signals from the Fed’s July meeting minutes and ongoing fiscal concerns.
With the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium approaching next week, investors remain highly vigilant for any policy signals that Fed Chair Wash may send, as his remarks could affect the current fragile market balance.U.S. data to be released next week includes the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Meanwhile, next week’s earnings report from Nvidia is seen as a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to break through the 8,000-point mark, but tech stocks have come under significant pressure this week, with the semiconductor sector falling more than 4% over the past week.
Investors must remain highly vigilant to navigate the underlying market currents created by the interplay of multiple factors—especially as turmoil in the bond market has finally begun to spill over into the stock market.

The U.S. Dollar Index weakened significantly this week, plunging sharply midweek following news that the U.S. Treasury would expand the scale of its long-term Treasury repurchases. It fell below the 99 mark for the first time since June, hitting a low of around 98.56. With market attention focused on the U.S. budget deficit, long-term debt pressures, and changes in the interest rate path, the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset has diminished somewhat.On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed at 98.85.
Spot gold performed strongly this week, briefly breaking through the $4,600 per ounce psychological barrier and hitting its highest level since late May; on Wednesday, it rose by more than $180 in a single day.Key factors driving the market included a weaker U.S. dollar, a temporary pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns over fiscal risks stemming from the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of Treasury repurchase agreements. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East bolstered safe-haven demand.On Friday, spot gold closed at $4,603.25 per ounce, up 5.2%, marking its third consecutive week of gains.
International oil prices rose overall this week, driven primarily by risks to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and supply concerns stemming from U.S. threats of further economic sanctions against Iran.Early in the week, escalating tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed oil prices up by more than 3% in a single day. The market then shifted its focus to news such as the U.S. military opening a shipping lane, causing oil prices to consolidate briefly; however, the escalation of sanctions once again drove up the risk premium.
U.S. stocks experienced a volatile decline this week, with the three major indices under overall pressure. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posted losses. Although there was a slight rebound on Friday, for the week as a whole, the Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.43%, and the Nasdaq declined 2.05%.U.S. quantitative hedge funds suffered their worst single-day drawdown of 2023 this week. Among individual stocks, Moderna surged as much as 176.9% in a single day on the back of major news; Walmart fell 9% in a single day due to earnings performance and market expectations, becoming the main drag on the consumer sector.

On Thursday, the Trump administration announced a new round of “toughest-ever” economic sanctions against Iran and threatened to take economic action against any country that conducts business with Iran.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated regarding bond repurchases that the size of a single repurchase (upper limit) could exceed $4 billion. The U.S. Dollar Index held steady near 98.9 and ultimately closed up 0.07% at 98.87;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 6.7 basis points at 4.705%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed up 2.8 basis points at 4.19%.
Following profit-taking by bulls after the previous day’s sharp rally, spot gold edged lower, ultimately closing down 0.08% at $4,519.33 per ounce;spot silver maintained its strength, ultimately closing up 1.60% at $68.09 per ounce.
As the U.S. announced a new round of severe sanctions against Iran and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, WTI crude oil closed up 2.08% at $85.98 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.79% at $91.69 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.3%, the S&P 500 down 0.86%, and the Nasdaq down 1%. Moderna (MRNA.O) fell 23.5%, and Walmart (WMT.N) fell 9%.M-Ville Technologies (MRVL.O) rose 5.8%, Micron Technology (MU.O) rose about 4%, and SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose about 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down more than 1%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 1.3%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury repurchase operations. Following the announcement, the U.S. Dollar Index plummeted, falling below the 99 mark for the first time since June and ultimately closing down 0.85% at 98.78;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.651%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.171%.
Spot gold broke through the 4,500 psychological barrier, surging more than $180 intraday to hit its highest level since early June, and ultimately closed up 4.35% at $4,523.03 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 5.8% at $67.01 per ounce.
Driven by news of the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. military’s secret opening of a shipping lane, the market is weighing the direction of oil prices.WTI crude traded sideways before closing up 0.08% at $84.23 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 0.1% at $91.45 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.22%,the S&P 500 gained 0.21%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.16%. Moderna (MRNA.O) surged 176.9%, and Merck (MRK.N) rose 12.6%. Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) gained over 9.8%,SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 0.35%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell 3.5%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 0.39%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.5%.

On Tuesday, the U.S.-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained the key variables affecting global markets.Trump stated that no negotiations with Iran are currently underway and that the naval blockade remains fully in effect; Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Washington meets Iran’s conditions; and the United Arab Emirates announced a suspension of trade, commercial, and financial transactions with Iran.
The U.S. Dollar Index continued its nearly two-week-long consolidation above 99, ultimately closing up 0.01% at 99.65; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.708%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed at 4.181%.
Spot gold fluctuated lower throughout the day, accelerating its decline after Trump declared that “the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally,” and ultimately closed down 1.86% at $4,334.57 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed down 3.72% at $63.34 per ounce.
The UK Maritime Authority received reports of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz being struck by projectiles; concerns over supply disruptions and shipping risks continued to dominate the market, and international oil prices extended their gains.WTI crude oil closed up 0.3% at $84.34 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.26% at $91.32 per barrel.
In U.S. stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.69%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33%. SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell 9%, Western Digital (WDC.O) fell 7%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 7%.SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell more than 9%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 2.8%.

On Monday, the 60-day deadline for the U.S.-Iran peace agreement officially expired, and Iran ruled out the possibility of an extension; U.S. President Trump stated that the United States is not currently seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, leading to heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.Investors are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes later this week to gain further insight into the Fed’s latest monetary policy decisions and the future trajectory of interest rates.
Due to recent weak U.S. economic data, market expectations for further Fed rate hikes continued to cool. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to a 10-week low during the session but later recovered its losses, ultimately closing up 0.01% at 99.59;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.73%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.188%.
Spot gold extended its gains, ultimately closing up 0.92% at $4,416.75 per ounce;Spot silver closed up 1.67% at $65.78 per ounce.
International oil prices surged as market concerns over Middle East crude supply intensified.WTI crude oil closed up 3.14% at $84.09 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.92% at $91.74 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, while the storage sector gained strength again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.5%,the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.32%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 3%, Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 4%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 8.8%, and Nike (NKE.N) fell 4%.The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.37%; Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) rose 4%, while Miniso (MNSO.N) fell 8%.

Last Friday, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly posted a month-over-month decline, and the U.S. Dollar Index continued its intraday downward trend, ultimately closing down 0.32% at 99.64;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.697%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.182%.
Spot gold dipped to $4,310 during the Asian session before stabilizing and rebounding; following the release of the retail sales data, gold surged to near the $4,400 level, ultimately closing up 0.59% at $4,376.59 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 0.37% at $64.7 per ounce.
Late Friday evening, a vessel was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz; the United Arab Emirates claimed Iran was responsible for the attack.WTI crude oil closed up 1.37% at $81.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.65% at $87.28 per barrel.
In U.S. markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.20%, the S&P 500 fell 0.17%,and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. Drone technology company Unusual Machines (UMAC.N) surged 24.83%. Storage-related stocks continued their upward trend, with SanDisk (SNDK.O) up 7.39% and Micron Technology (MU.O) up 2.3%.Semiconductor stocks were mixed, with AMD (AMD.O) up 6.5%, Broadcom (AVGO.O) down 5.94%, and Applied Materials (AMAT.O) down 5.12%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.6%.

This week, risk appetite in global financial markets rebounded overall.
In the stock market, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached new short-term highs this week. The market’s focus appears to have shifted from defensive, risk-averse strategies back to expectations of interest rate cuts and the realization of AI-driven earnings, with tech and chip stocks once again leading the gains;South Korea’s stock market also strengthened significantly, with the KOSPI Index rising 11.5% for the week, ending a seven-week losing streak and returning to a technical bull market.
In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. Dollar Index remained largely flat for the week. Improved inflation data prompted the market to scale back expectations for Fed rate hikes, putting the dollar under pressure at one point, but safe-haven demand driven by the situation in the Middle East limited its decline. On Friday, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly contracted month-over-month, accelerating the dollar’s decline.
Major non-U.S. currencies showed divergent trends.The euro fluctuated lower as the market focused on the European Central Bank’s remaining policy room; the yen traded weakly, with USD/JPY rising above 159 again, while the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities and the central bank’s rate hike path remained in focus; the Australian dollar was supported by improved risk appetite but remained vulnerable to commodity price volatility.
In the precious metals market, spot gold rose to near a two-month high midweek, peaking at nearly $4,450 per ounce during the session, before falling to around $4,320 due to profit-taking. It rebounded on Friday, marking its second consecutive week of gains.
Crude oil prices rose initially but then fell. Early in the week, tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, drove both benchmark crude prices to surge sharply. However, following a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories and the International Energy Agency’s downward revision of demand forecasts, oil prices retreated accordingly, with the market returning to the narrative of ample supply and slowing demand.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded in a range overall this week and edged higher. Driven by improved U.S. inflation data, the market scaled back expectations for Fed rate hikes, putting the dollar under pressure at one point. However, safe-haven demand stemming from the situation in the Middle East limited the decline, and the dollar stabilized before rebounding slightly.On Friday, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly contracted on a monthly basis, accelerating the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index, which stood at 99.52 at the time of writing.
Spot gold continued its strong performance this week before pulling back from highs; it briefly rose to near a two-month high midweek but subsequently retreated due to profit-taking.The gold price reached an intraday high of nearly $4,450 per ounce before briefly falling back to around $4,320; it rebounded again on Friday and stood at $4,388 per ounce at the time of writing.
International oil prices followed a “spike-and-consolidation” pattern this week. Early in the week, both Brent and WTI crude surged sharply due to U.S.-Iran tensions and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz; however, prices subsequently retreated as U.S. crude inventories rose significantly and OPEC and the International Energy Agency revised their demand forecasts downward, with the market returning to a focus on ample supply and slowing demand.
Among non-U.S. currencies, the euro fluctuated lower as the market focused on the European Central Bank’s room for further policy action; the British pound was supported by the UK’s 0.4% GDP growth in the second quarter, but expectations of an economic slowdown limited its upside potential.The yen was relatively weak this week, with the USD/JPY pair rising above 159 again, as the market continued to monitor the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities and the Bank of Japan’s rate hike path; the Australian dollar was supported by improved risk appetite but remained affected by commodity price volatility.
U.S. stocks fluctuated higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hitting new short-term highs. The market’s focus shifted from “defensive and safe-haven plays” to “rate cut expectations and AI earnings realization,” with tech and chip stocks once again leading the gains.