Last Friday, as U.S. nonfarm payroll growth in September fell short of expectations and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October largely faded. The U.S. Dollar Index gave back some of its gains, ultimately closing down 0.08% at 101.94.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note initially fell before rising, ultimately gaining 3.2 basis points to close at 5.283%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, rose 3.1 basis points to 4.835%.
Pressured by high U.S. Treasury yields, spot gold fell sharply during the U.S. trading session, breaking below the $4,200 mark, and ultimately closed down 0.9% at $4,139.24 per ounce;spot silver ultimately closed down 1.04% at $60.35 per ounce.
International oil prices continued to decline after the Group of Seven agreed last Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves.WTI crude oil fell below the $90 mark, plunging nearly 5% at one point during the session before rebounding slightly; it ultimately closed down 1.71% at $90.33 per barrel. Brent crude oil initially fell but then rose, ultimately closing up 0.38% at $101.83 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indices rose: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.49%, the S&P 500 rose 0.74%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.19%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose 7.35%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 4.65%,Dell (DELL.N) rose 3.8%, Broadcom (AVGO.O) rose 3.35%, ASML (ASML.O) rose 3.25%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 1.34%;Accenture (ACN.N) fell 6.27%, and SanDisk fell 3.79%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.09%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) down 1.47% and Baidu (BIDU.O) down 1.48%.

In a trading week marked by an unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls report and a renewed rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, the Fed’s rate hike path, Middle East and energy policies, and U.S. dollar liquidity emerged as the three key factors driving global asset markets.
The U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report released on Friday showed an increase of only 29,000 jobs, far below market expectations of 90,000. The August figure was revised downward to 133,000, resulting in a combined downward revision of 60,000 over the two months. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%.
Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, the interest rate market’s pricing for a Fed rate hike in October quickly cooled. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady rose to 83.9%, while the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 66.1%.
Long-term U.S. Treasuries remained the key variable this week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.36% at one point this week, reaching a level not seen in over two decades, causing the U.S. Dollar Index to climb to a 17-month high and post three consecutive weeks of gains.
In the commodities market, energy was the most volatile sector. News on Friday that the G7 had decided to release reserves sent oil prices on a sustained downward trend, while precious metals took a back seat to bond yields. Spot gold plunged as much as 4% on Monday to around $4,110, breaking below its 100-day moving average, and posted a weekly decline of nearly 2%.

The U.S. Dollar Index remained strong overall this week, rising to a 17-month high at one point and on track for its third consecutive week of gains. The key driver behind this trend was a global sell-off in long-term bonds; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to about 5.36% at one point—its highest level since 2002—significantly strengthening the dollar’s yield advantage and its status as a safe-haven asset.On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls data fell short of expectations, cooling market expectations for a Fed rate hike and causing the U.S. Dollar Index to pull back slightly; as of this writing, it stands at 101.88.
Spot gold weakened significantly overall this week. On Monday, it plummeted by as much as 4% at one point, hitting a low of $4,110 per ounce—its lowest level in over seven weeks—and breaking below the 100-day moving average. Although a rebound followed, the weekly decline remained close to 2% as of this writing.Spot silver followed suit with a correction this week, exhibiting significantly greater volatility than gold. On Monday, silver prices fell approximately 4.5% in a single day to around $61.39; although they have since recovered somewhat, they remain in a weekly downtrend.
International crude oil continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with Brent trading consistently above $100, while WTI fluctuated around the $90 mark. Overall, the market pattern featured gains driven by geopolitical risks and profit-taking triggered by expectations of improved supply.At the start of the week, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices higher; subsequently, expectations of negotiations and the resumption of exports reduced risk premiums; and toward the end of the week, renewed military tensions in the Middle East once again supported oil prices.
Major non-U.S. currencies came under overall pressure this week, with the euro leading the decline and the British pound and Australian dollar weakening in tandem, while the Japanese yen continued to be weighed down by high U.S. Treasury yields.The euro fell to its lowest level since May 2025, with French fiscal risks and pressure in the European bond market amplifying the decline; the British pound and Australian dollar approached multi-month lows, while the U.S. dollar remained at elevated levels against the yen.
U.S. stocks performed relatively weakly overall this week but showed resilience; the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were weighed down by rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, while the Nasdaq held up relatively well.A sharp rise in long-term yields early in the week put pressure on high-valuation tech stocks, but moderate inflation data and receding expectations for interest rate hikes subsequently drove a rebound in the tech and AI sectors, while energy stocks remained relatively strong in tandem with oil prices.

On Thursday, U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 197,000, and ISM manufacturing input costs rose, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index above the 102 mark to its highest level since April of last year. It ultimately closed up 0.55% at 102.03.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose before retreating; it briefly touched 5.34% during the session (a high not seen since 2002) but ultimately fell 4.8 basis points to close at 5.247%;The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, fell 9.8 basis points to 4.804%.
Spot gold stabilized and rebounded amid long-term buying driven by expectations of moderate inflation and central banks’ structural “de-dollarization,” ultimately closing up 0.48% at $4,176.95 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 0.98% at $60.98 per ounce.
The U.S. military deployed a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East; Trump stated that Iran must either sign an agreement or cease to exist. International oil prices surged significantly after experiencing sharp volatility.WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 2.75% at $91.89 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 4.1% at $101.52 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq up 0.04%.Accenture (ACN.N) rose 15.99%, SK Hynix rose 5.08%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 2.75%, IBM (IBM.N) rose 2.63%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 3.03%;Broadcom (AVGO.O) fell 2.15%, and Google (GOOG.O) fell 1.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.03%, with NetEase (NTES.O) down 0.45% and Alibaba (BABA.N) down 0.09%.

On Wednesday, U.S. August core PCE inflation data came in unexpectedly lower than expected, but Federal Reserve officials continued to send strong hawkish signals.Cook reiterated that inflation has exceeded the 2% target for more than five years, supported a rate hike in September, and pledged to restore price stability, while Goolsbee warned that persistently high inflation is “playing with fire” and that massive fiscal deficits themselves constitute a stimulus.
The U.S. Dollar Index ultimately closed up 0.08% at 101.47.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since May 2002, ultimately closing up 5.4 basis points at 5.295%; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, rose 1.7 basis points to 4.902%.
Spot gold extended its intraday rebound but ultimately retreated, closing down 0.61% at $4,157.12 per ounce; spot silver closed down 1.69% at $60.43 per ounce.
International oil prices reversed the previous day’s decline and resumed their upward trend following reports that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz had reached an impasse, and that U.S. President Trump had denied plans to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear concessions.WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 1.57% at $89.45 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.18% at $97.52 per barrel.
In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.86%, the S&P 500 fell 0.25%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.24%.Intel (INTC.O) rose 3.71%, Apple (AAPL.O) rose 1.1%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 0.51%, and Google (GOOG.O) rose 0.93%;Moderna (MRNA.O) fell 5.35%, and Ford Motor (F.N) fell 1.95%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.6%; Baidu (BIDU.O) rose 0.18%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 0.17%.